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  • Which result do you trust?

    Which result do you trust?

    Biomedical researchers struggle to reproduce their own work. In a 2024 survey of 1,630 of them, published in PLOS Biology, 72% said their field faces a reproducibility crisis. Of those who had tried to repeat one of their own studies, 43% could not.

    That last number is the stranger one. Reproducing someone else’s work means a different lab, different hands and different reagents. Reproducing your own work removes most of those differences, and it still fails. You run the same analysis a second time, get a different number, and no one can say why. The first run is already in the paper. Now you have two results and no way to tell which one is right.

    This kind of failure is quieter than fraud and does more damage, because nothing flags it. A result you cannot account for looks the same as one you can, until someone asks you to account for it.

    Why results diverge

    A result can change between runs for reasons that never show up in the analysis: a parameter set by hand and never written down, a library that updated, a random seed, a different machine. A reviewer would not catch any of these, because the analysis looks the same both times.

    So running it again does not settle anything. A third run may give a third number. Without a record of what each run used, you are comparing results you cannot explain.

    The fix is a record of every run

    It would be easy to claim that the same inputs always give the same answer. That would not be true. Much of what changes a result sits outside the code: software versions, seeds, hardware. No workflow can keep all of that fixed.

    What a workflow can do is keep the record. In a grounded workflow, every run stores exactly what produced it: the inputs, the code version and the parameters. When two results differ, you put the two runs side by side and see what changed, such as a dependency or a parameter. You can also see which run matches the paper.

    This is the lineage claim from the first episode, applied to a second run, and it holds without conditions. The number may still move. The record tells you why it moved and which version to trust.

    Which one do you report?

    The runs do not all have to agree, but when they disagree you need to be able to explain why. Then when a reviewer, an auditor or your future self asks which result is correct, the answer is in the record and not in someone’s memory.

    A result you can account for is a result you can defend. A result you cannot account for is a liability wearing a lab coat.

    With the record, you do not have to guess which result to trust.


    Sources

    Cobey, K. D., et al. (2024). Biomedical researchers’ perspectives on the reproducibility of research. PLOS Biology, 22(11), e3002870.

    Trisovic, A., Lau, M. K., Pasquier, T., & Crosas, M. (2022). A large-scale study on research code quality and execution. Scientific Data, 9, 60.

  • Can you rerun it?

    Can you rerun it?

     Reproducibility is the real test of whether scientific data is ready. Not whether a result was written down, but whether it can be rebuilt on demand; by someone else, after the people and the systems have moved on. Most teams can show a result. Fewer can run it again. That gap is where AI validation and regulatory review tend to break.

    The request that separates companies

    In an evaluation I eventually ask for the same thing. Show me last year’s best result. Then rerun it, start to finish, while I watch.

    Most teams can produce the result. The figure, the readout, the number that went into a decision. Fewer can rebuild it. Not because anyone was careless, but because the result was never designed to be produced a second time.

    A reproducible result is a different object

    A result you cannot reproduce is not a weaker version of one you can. It is a different kind of object. It records that something happened once. It cannot promise it would happen again

    The question is not whether it happened. It is whether it can happen again.

    That is not a quality gap you close with a better report. The report describes the result. Reproducibility is a property of how the result was made.

    Not a niche worry

    In 2026 the Brazilian Reproducibility Initiative, more than 50 labs working together, took a set of published biomedical experiments and ran them again. Depending on the criteria, 20% to 44% reproduced. Fewer than half. 

    This was not a survey or an estimate. It was the experiments, run a second time, by independent labs with nothing to sell. And a 2024 survey in PLOS Biology found that 72% of biomedical researchers already agree there is a reproducibility crisis. The people doing the work are not surprised.

    The part I sit with is not the number. It is why so much of it did not rebuild. The initiative traced much of the gap to methods that were written down but never written to be run again: steps left ambiguous, details that lived in one person’s hands. 

    Records were kept, protocols were written, reports were filed. The work still did not rebuild. Documentation was never the missing piece.

    Why ready and rerunnable are the same question

    A result reruns only when four things are recoverable together: the inputs, the code, the environment they ran in, and the order they ran in. Lose any one and you can still describe what happened. You cannot reproduce it.

    Most systems capture the first and narrate the rest. That is enough to pass an audit of the record. It is not enough to rebuild the result, which is a different and harder guarantee.

    What a vendor will not tell you

    Here is the concession. Most existing results will never be made rerunnable, and chasing them usually is not worth it. You do not go back and rebuild five years of work. You draw a line. You make everything after it reproducible by default, and you are clear about which side of the line a given result sits on

    The stronger version does not rely on discipline

    Knowing the line is the minimum. The better arrangement is a system that will not record a result it cannot rebuild, so reproducibility stops being a practice a person maintains and becomes a property of the record itself. That difference holds up when the person who maintained the practice leaves.

    The last time you were asked to reproduce a result, could you, or did you have to piece it back together?

    Surfacing that in a room costs an afternoon. Discovering it inside an AI validation costs the result, and every decision that leaned on it.


    Sources

    The Brazilian Reproducibility Initiative, “Estimating the replicability of Brazilian biomedical science,” eLife, reviewed preprint (2026)

    Cobey et al., “Biomedical researchers’ perspectives on the reproducibility of research,” PLOS Biology 22(11):e3002870 (2024)